Fri, Feb 9, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 3, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 221 | 09 | 338 |
| NYR | 120 | 18 | 28 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:53NYRKevin HayesPPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:15CGYBrett KulakAssists: Micheal Ferland, Johnny Gaudreau · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:52NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes · Deflected, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 12:37CGYCurtis LazarAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Matt Stajan · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 18:27CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 6:41NYRRick NashAssists: Nick Holden, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 12:41NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: J.T. Miller, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:36CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:07CGYMicheal Ferland: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 14:34CGYMikael Backlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:56NYRNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P2 1:12NYRJ.T. Miller: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:41NYRBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:53NYRSteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:50NYRPaul Carey: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:44CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:57CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:28NYRKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk7:59
xG 0.43–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Stajan – Lazar – Lomberg6:10
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett5:54
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan11:52
xG 0.61–1.66 (27%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak8:09
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie12:57
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton13:54
xG 0.54–1.23 (30%)attempts 18–19goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Hayes – Miller7:16
xG 1.30–0.22 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad10:18
xG 0.63–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Grabner – Holland – Fast2:42
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Holland – Lettieri5:15
xG 0.04–0.11 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Skjei12:06
xG 1.36–0.82 (63%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
- Holden – DeAngelo9:06
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Gilmour – Pionk10:38
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).