Fri, Feb 9, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 5, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 310 | 28 | 527 |
| WPG | 05 | 17 | 110 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:18STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 10:13STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Jaden Schwartz · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 11:39STLAlexander SteenGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 17:33WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Jack Roslovic · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 11:39WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 12:45STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Paul Stastny, Jay Bouwmeester · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 19:57STLJaden SchwartzENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:10WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 13:25WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:08STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:58STLJay Bouwmeester: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:00STLVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:52STLJay Bouwmeester: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Stastny – Tarasenko9:23
xG 0.92–0.17 (85%)attempts 16–9goals 3–0
- Berglund – Schenn – Schwartz13:14
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Thorburn – Upshall – Brodziak5:53
xG 0.11–0.41 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Barbashev10:52
xG 0.16–0.46 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGunnarsson – Pietrangelo15:10
xG 0.86–0.26 (77%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo2:38
xG 0.40–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko15:01
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Copp – Connor9:30
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Perreault – Scheifele5:24
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine3:16
xG 0.05–0.07 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dano – Petan – Roslovic3:30
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Chiarot12:05
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:30
xG 0.49–0.46 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrissey15:26
xG 0.26–1.04 (20%)attempts 10–20goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).