Sat, Feb 10, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 112 | 29 | 325 |
| TOR | 314 | 116 | 211 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:25TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 11:30TORMitch MarnerAssists: Patrick Marleau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 8:32OTTJohnny OduyaAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 13:51TORJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–4
- P3 0:45OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 2:29TORNazem KadriAssists: Mitch Marner, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 13:32OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Borowiecki · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 18:38TORPatrick MarleauENAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.68 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:24TORJake Gardiner: Holding2 min
- P1 14:10OTTChristopher DiDomenico: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:16OTTMark Borowiecki: Holding2 min
- P2 9:55TORRon Hainsey: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:58OTTTom Pyatt: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:32OTTDerick Brassard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:57OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Paajarvi – Pageau4:10
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – Dzingel2:40
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Brassard – Smith – Stone11:22
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau3:01
xG 0.01–0.19 (6%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Karlsson11:41
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Ceci – Chabot3:24
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Chabot3:01
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Marner12:45
xG 1.16–0.27 (81%)attempts 23–4goals 3–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown9:29
xG 0.53–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen10:17
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:27
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev16:55
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly14:15
xG 0.79–0.52 (60%)attempts 26–12goals 2–2
- Carrick – Dermott14:57
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).