Sun, Feb 11, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Calgary Flames 3, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 114 | 219 | 342 |
| NYI | 111 | 17 | 07 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 2:59NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Mathew Barzal, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 10:35CGYMark JankowskiPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 9:38CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Michael Frolik, Brett Kulak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 18:55CGYMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Travis Hamonic, Michael Frolik · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:01CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min
- P1 6:18NYISebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:49CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:33NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:33CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:08NYIMathew Barzal: Holding2 min
- P2 8:36NYIJason Chimera: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:03NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P3 12:48CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:58CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan10:33
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:27
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett4:29
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:16
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie12:35
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Stone – Kulak9:23
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Cizikas – Johnston5:12
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Nelson4:42
xG 0.01–0.04 (28%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier8:56
xG 0.32–0.51 (39%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee10:04
xG 0.22–0.49 (31%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Aho9:46
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy10:56
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
- Hickey – Pulock14:34
xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).