Thu, Feb 15, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 18 | 04 | 113 | 00 | 225 |
| OTT | 013 | 09 | 213 | 11 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31BUFScott WilsonAssists: Johan Larsson, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 5:15OTTMarian GaborikAssists: Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 15:31BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Kyle Okposo, Casey Nelson · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:29OTTDerick BrassardAssists: Marian Gaborik, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:13OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:46BUFSam Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:42OTTMark Borowiecki: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:42BUFZemgus Girgensons: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:31BUFSam Reinhart: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:40OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P2 14:50BUFEvan Rodrigues: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:31BUFBenoit Pouliot: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:18OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Pouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart12:26
xG 0.14–0.24 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Josefson – Girgensons – Baptiste6:51
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson8:55
xG 0.11–0.56 (17%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Okposo – Kane – Rodrigues9:23
xG 0.12–0.77 (14%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Antipin11:07
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Gorges – Ristolainen2:11
xG 0.01–0.08 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen13:27
xG 0.09–0.46 (17%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Smith – Stone10:18
xG 1.08–0.21 (84%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Hoffman – Duchene10:58
xG 0.42–0.08 (83%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – Pageau8:31
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Shore – White7:08
xG 0.22–0.25 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Harpur3:49
xG 0.55–0.05 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – Karlsson10:46
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Harpur2:14
xG 0.28–0.18 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).