Fri, Feb 16, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 1, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 08 | 015 | 18 | 131 |
| WPG | 111 | 39 | 28 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:49WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 15:50WPGAndrew CoppSHAssists: Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 19:32WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 5:24WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 7:54WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Patrik Laine, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.12 xG0–6
- P3 14:04COLMikko RantanenUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 11:27COLJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P2 3:26WPGMark Scheifele: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:54WPGTyler Myers: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:17WPGJoel Armia: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:28COLGabriel Bourque: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56WPGDustin Byfuglien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:56WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:56WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:56COLA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:00COLA.J. Greer: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:03COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:34COLTyson Barrie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:39WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00WPGNic Petan: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Compher – Rantanen – Jost2:37
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Compher – Jost4:54
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – Toninato – Greer6:34
xG 0.03–0.12 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:40
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard7:27
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Barrie – Lindholm9:26
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Johnson – Girard2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor9:12
xG 0.74–0.37 (67%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Laine9:50
xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Hendricks – Armia – Petan6:48
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic9:39
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien11:15
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Chiarot10:14
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Kulikov2:37
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).