Sat, Feb 17, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 1, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 06 | 08 | 120 |
| CHI | 321 | 312 | 111 | 744 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:03WSHTom WilsonAssists: Matt Niskanen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 12:47CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 19:58CHINick SchmaltzAssists: Carl Dahlstrom, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 16:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P2 17:32CHIRyan HartmanAssists: Michal Kempny · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–5
- P2 18:29CHIArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 8:22CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Ryan Hartman, Patrick Sharp · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:13CHIBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:49WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:53CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:37WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:41WSHChristian Djoos: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:36WSHDevante Smith-Pelly: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:36CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:02WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:04CHIRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:04WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:04WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky7:31
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–3
- Oshie – Chiasson – Kuznetsov10:24
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson7:44
xG 0.18–0.62 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:12
xG 0.30–0.82 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Carlson – Djoos12:38
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
- Niskanen – Orlov17:06
xG 0.60–1.57 (28%)attempts 16–21goals 1–1
- Orpik – Bowey12:34
xG 0.09–1.24 (7%)attempts 2–16goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBouma – Hinostroza – Kampf9:43
xG 1.31–0.28 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Sharp – Hartman – DeBrincat9:41
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Schmaltz10:00
xG 0.41–0.30 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Toews – Wingels – Saad10:07
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Kempny10:42
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Keith – Oesterle14:28
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Dahlstrom – Kempny3:31
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).