Sun, Feb 18, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 2, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 18 | 07 | 227 |
| WPG | 112 | 215 | 47 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57FLADenis MalginPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:06WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 4:39WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Tyler Myers, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 7:34FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 18:29WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 3:38WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 6:03WPGBryan LittleAssists: Tyler Myers, Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 15:27WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 18:25WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Bryan Little, Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:16WPGTyler Myers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:53FLAMark Pysyk: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:12WPGJack Roslovic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:25FLANick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin9:31
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley8:18
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Vrbata – McGinn – McCann9:08
xG 0.14–0.70 (16%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov14:20
xG 0.34–1.28 (21%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Petrovic – Ekblad2:49
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Weegar12:36
xG 0.23–0.43 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Pysyk – Matheson16:25
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:34
xG 1.33–0.56 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Little – Perreault – Roslovic12:03
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Laine10:51
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Armia – Petan7:13
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien18:21
xG 1.40–0.40 (78%)attempts 23–8goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Chiarot13:57
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Myers – Morrissey15:27
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 9–12goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).