Mon, Feb 19, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 014 | 210 | 16 | 330 |
| BUF | 010 | 07 | 217 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:18WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Christian Djoos, John Carlson · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 13:33WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: T.J. Oshie, Jakub Vrana · Snap, 0.44 xG2–0
- P3 12:42BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Scott Wilson, Evan Rodrigues · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:34WSHEvgeny KuznetsovENGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.70 xG3–1
- P3 19:56BUFEvander KaneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:53BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:54WSHBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P2 13:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:14WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana9:49
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky9:18
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson13:21
xG 0.70–0.47 (60%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson9:10
xG 0.34–0.16 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov2:04
xG 0.86–0.09 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Carlson – Djoos14:02
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Orpik – Bowey13:55
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart4:59
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Girgensons – Reinhart7:04
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – O'Reilly – Kane10:42
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons3:51
xG 0.02–0.02 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Ristolainen18:43
xG 0.64–0.73 (47%)attempts 22–19goals 0–1
- Gorges – Nelson13:06
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Falk – Beaulieu12:49
xG 0.35–1.34 (21%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).