Tue, Feb 20, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 18 | 013 | 16 | 00 | 227 |
| PHI | 010 | 112 | 18 | 13 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:47MTLJeff PetryAssists: Karl Alzner, Charles Hudon · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 7:18PHINolan PatrickPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 8:45MTLPaul ByronAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:35PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 1:26PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:41MTLJordie Benn: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:37PHIBrandon Manning: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:37MTLNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:35MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:37MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drouin won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Byron – Gallagher12:06
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr8:24
xG 0.61–0.24 (71%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Danault – Galchenyuk – Hudon10:15
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Lehkonen – Drouin14:25
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Morrow14:34
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 13–22goals 1–0
- Petry – Benn3:33
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner15:47
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Raffl – Lindblom11:30
xG 0.59–0.33 (65%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier2:09
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Voracek – Weal – Patrick11:56
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Giroux – Couturier – Raffl2:09
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg16:25
xG 1.03–0.56 (65%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov19:37
xG 0.71–0.97 (42%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- Manning – Gudas10:57
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).