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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 20, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Colorado Avalanche 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)

Away

Colorado Avalanche

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.

VAN winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
COL01231011012534
VAN094100405428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:34VANDarren ArchibaldAssists: Brandon Sutter, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P2 10:46COLTyson JostPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 13:01VANNikolay GoldobinPPAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 13:52VANBrandon SutterAssists: Nikolay Goldobin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 15:42VANBo HorvatAssists: Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P2 17:57COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P2 19:23COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
  8. P3 16:59COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
  9. OT 3:36COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.06 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 7:26COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 11:10VANSven Baertschi: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 10:06VANHenrik Sedin: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:00COLColin Wilson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 17:40VANMichael Del Zotto: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 18:39VANThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min · PPG
  7. P3 0:19COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
  8. P3 15:46VANJake Virtanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. OT 3:23VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
46% to win54% to win
← COL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Sutter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLVAN
34Shots on goal28
2.7Expected goals3.4
56Shot attempts60
28Faceoffs won39
6Power plays3
6Penalty minutes12
27Hits32
16Blocked shots11
3Giveaways4
5Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestWilson – Kerfoot – Compher8:39

    xG 0.28–0.09 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

  2. Bourque – Yakupov – Jost6:41

    xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

  3. Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:00

    xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2

  4. Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:06

    xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestWarsofsky – Siemens5:25

    xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0

  2. Warsofsky – Barrie2:27

    xG 0.02–0.02 (53%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Warsofsky – Nemeth2:48

    xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestDowd – Virtanen – Goldobin7:34

    xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

  2. Eriksson – Sutter – Archibald11:20

    xG 0.72–0.38 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0

  3. Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser12:00

    xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0

  4. Sedin – Sedin – Vanek9:26

    xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBiega – Pouliot12:09

    xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0

  2. Edler – Gudbranson16:50

    xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0

  3. Del Zotto – Stecher16:00

    xG 0.73–0.81 (47%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 3.4 xGCOL 2.7 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #34 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.29 · 9 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.

VAN winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).