Thu, Feb 22, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 27 | 211 | 06 | 424 |
| OTT | 113 | 011 | 212 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:31TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Chris Kunitz, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:54OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mark Stone, Derick Brassard · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 16:26TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 3:37TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 19:59TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 8:11OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Bobby Ryan, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 17:44OTTDerick BrassardPPAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:25OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:11TBLSlater Koekkoek: Holding2 min
- P2 7:45TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:19TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:58OTTErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:07TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:47TBLJake Dotchin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov6:58
xG 0.82–0.32 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Callahan – Stamkos – Namestnikov4:39
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Point7:30
xG 0.41–0.39 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne2:08
xG 0.05–0.09 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev7:54
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Stralman – Hedman3:32
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Stralman – Koekkoek3:52
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGaborik – Pyatt – Shore2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene8:07
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel3:03
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Paajarvi – Dzingel – Pageau3:14
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Chabot5:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Harpur2:26
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot5:27
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).