Thu, Feb 22, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 27 | 114 | 217 | 538 |
| ARI | 110 | 012 | 115 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57ARIDerek StepanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 11:02CGYSam BennettAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:18CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:38CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–1
- P3 5:11CGYMark JankowskiSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 11:06CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 17:30ARIKevin ConnautonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:54ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:50ARIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:50CGYMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:12CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:10CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:27CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:24ARIMax Domi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:28CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:32ARIMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:02CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:02ARIJosh Archibald: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:21ARIMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:21ARIMax Domi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Brouwer – Lazar6:31
xG 1.17–0.08 (94%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Ferland – Jankowski – Hathaway5:12
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett10:36
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:07
xG 0.47–0.89 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Kulak10:28
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton11:33
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Hamonic – Brodie13:33
xG 1.12–0.78 (59%)attempts 16–18goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Panik – Dvorak – Fischer7:50
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Stepan – Perlini – Keller9:01
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook9:31
xG 0.23–0.56 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Archibald – Domi4:20
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson11:27
xG 0.86–0.68 (56%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson7:21
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun2:07
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).