Fri, Feb 23, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 111 | 316 | 212 | 639 |
| CAR | 06 | 115 | 07 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:36PITJake GuentzelAssists: Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:46PITOlli MaattaGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 2:05CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 6:11PITPhil KesselAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 8:25PITPhil KesselAssists: Riley Sheahan, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 9:12PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–1
- P3 12:42PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 9:45PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:45CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:59CARSebastian Aho: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:09PITBrian Dumoulin: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:42CARCam Ward: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:14PITDominik Simon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Sheahan – Guentzel11:18
xG 0.92–0.37 (72%)attempts 16–13goals 3–0
- Crosby – Sheary – Aston-Reese2:03
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Simon10:31
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Rowney – Sheary – Aston-Reese6:15
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin17:56
xG 1.03–0.46 (69%)attempts 24–11goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Oleksiak11:50
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Schultz – Maatta16:57
xG 0.70–1.57 (31%)attempts 14–27goals 3–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan11:12
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho12:42
xG 0.67–0.54 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn11:40
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Nordstrom – Di Giuseppe – Jooris5:32
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce13:54
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin7:23
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Faulk – Hanifin8:17
xG 0.33–0.16 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).