Sat, Feb 24, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 1, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 115 | 010 | 04 | 129 |
| CGY | 28 | 110 | 211 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:24CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 16:24COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Duncan Siemens · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 10:50CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Michael Stone, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 2:39CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 14:46CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P2 6:14CGYBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:16COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:51COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:51COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:51CGYGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:30COLDuncan Siemens: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:13CGYGarnet Hathaway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:13COLDuncan Siemens: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:13CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:13COLDuncan Siemens: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Bourque – Toninato – Compher7:06
xG 0.07–0.10 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto12:45
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost9:33
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:18
xG 0.21–0.83 (20%)attempts 8–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Girard7:52
xG 0.49–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Siemens4:58
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard11:13
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:07
xG 0.86–0.77 (53%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Mangiapane11:06
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett12:57
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar8:30
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:49
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Stone – Brodie2:42
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Kulak2:31
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).