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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 24, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise

Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Florida Panthers 6

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

5

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

FLA winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT11219316537
FLA21021228630

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:44FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Denis Malgin, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:40PITCarl HagelinAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jamie Oleksiak · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P1 19:21FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
  4. P2 2:07FLAJamie McGinnAssists: Jared McCann, Alexander Petrovic · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 8:12FLADerek MacKenzieAssists: Colton Sceviour, Alexander Petrovic · Slap, 0.24 xG1–4
  6. P2 13:10PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
  7. P3 0:46PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Carl Hagelin · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
  8. P3 1:44FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.13 xG3–5
  9. P3 14:21PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.28 xG4–5
  10. P3 15:10PITBryan RustAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–5
  11. P3 18:07FLAEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
  1. P3 5:02PITDominik Simon: Tripping2 min
  2. P3 5:49PITJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
  3. P3 12:12PITPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
  4. P3 14:07PITJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
  5. P3 14:07FLANick Bjugstad: Fighting5 min · PPG
  6. P3 14:07FLANick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 18:07PITPatric Hornqvist: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
46% to win54% to win
← PIT attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITFLA
37Shots on goal30
3.5Expected goals2.6
63Shot attempts47
22Faceoffs won30
1Power plays3
21Penalty minutes7
7Hits19
11Blocked shots19
14Giveaways18
5Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin7:30

    xG 0.98–0.09 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 1–1

  2. Rowney – Sheary – Aston-Reese2:02

    xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel16:00

    xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2

  4. Malkin – Hagelin – Rust3:36

    xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLetang – Dumoulin19:21

    xG 1.13–0.50 (70%)attempts 19–13goals 2–1

  2. Hunwick – Oleksiak10:16

    xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 1–3

  3. Schultz – Maatta18:05

    xG 0.62–0.66 (48%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov13:38

    xG 0.86–0.41 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0

  2. McGinn – Sceviour – Trocheck2:21

    xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. MacKenzie – Sceviour – Haley6:34

    xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0

  4. McGinn – McCann – Mamin8:22

    xG 0.23–0.28 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPysyk – Matheson16:56

    xG 0.94–0.49 (66%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0

  2. Petrovic – McCoshen11:43

    xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0

  3. Yandle – Ekblad19:59

    xG 0.82–1.57 (34%)attempts 13–25goals 3–3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 2.6 xGPIT 3.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #37 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.10 · 11 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.

FLA winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).