Sat, Feb 24, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 1, Washington Capitals 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 09 | 111 | 129 |
| WSH | 18 | 112 | 316 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Brett Connolly, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 13:20WSHAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Matt Niskanen · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 0:14BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Casey Nelson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 10:13WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:48WSHLars EllerENAssists: Alex Chiasson, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.51 xG1–4
- P3 18:36WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:51WSHBrett Connolly: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:43BUFKyle Okposo: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 14:16WSHAndre Burakovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart13:43
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Baptiste9:44
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Rodrigues13:05
xG 0.73–1.40 (34%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson9:08
xG 0.04–0.86 (4%)attempts 6–18goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Gorges – Antipin12:31
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen17:35
xG 0.76–1.06 (42%)attempts 19–24goals 0–2
- Scandella – Nelson17:03
xG 0.61–1.68 (27%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson14:46
xG 1.83–1.07 (63%)attempts 20–24goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Connolly11:22
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Eller – Stephenson – Burakovsky10:33
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Beagle – Chiasson – Smith-Pelly7:18
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos15:03
xG 1.64–0.38 (81%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Orlov19:00
xG 1.08–0.70 (61%)attempts 21–24goals 1–1
- Orpik – Kempny14:46
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).