Sun, Feb 25, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 116 | 011 | 135 |
| BUF | 26 | 18 | 110 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:26BUFBenoit PouliotAssists: Victor Antipin, Nick Baptiste · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 16:31BUFKyle OkposoPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:35BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:50BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 3:22BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Jason Pominville, Victor Antipin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:04BUFNick Baptiste: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:15BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:16BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:21BOSJake DeBrusk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:25BUFSam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:16BUFBenoit Pouliot: Holding2 min
- P3 1:16BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:04BOSTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:47BUFJohan Larsson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Schaller – Acciari8:08
xG 0.62–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:32
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Nash – Krejci – DeBrusk7:37
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Backes – Nash – Heinen6:43
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk10:39
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy14:43
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Krug – McAvoy2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Wilson – Rodrigues9:03
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart10:28
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Baptiste5:35
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Pominville – Pouliot – Larsson8:32
xG 0.13–1.02 (12%)attempts 2–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Falk – Nelson3:02
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen14:45
xG 0.50–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Nelson – Antipin10:23
xG 0.12–0.48 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).