Mon, Feb 26, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 113 | 06 | 117 | 03 | 239 |
| LAK | 010 | 014 | 217 | 13 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37VGKErik HaulaAssists: James Neal, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 0:47VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 12:28LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:49LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 3:14LAKDustin BrownPPGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:18LAKKyle Clifford: Interference2 min
- P1 12:41VGKJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:30VGKTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:30LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:48LAKAlex Iafallo: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:52VGKDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:52LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:00VGKRyan Reaves: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:34VGKColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestEakin – Carpenter – Tuch6:02
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:50
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek2:07
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Haula – Tuch6:06
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Sbisa14:49
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- McNabb – Schmidt13:18
xG 0.82–0.60 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller12:02
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Rieder5:14
xG 0.38–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Pearson2:36
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Clifford – Amadio5:33
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kempe – Iafallo2:50
xG 0.04–0.03 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Martinez11:41
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty3:26
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort12:39
xG 0.67–0.81 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).