Tue, Feb 27, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 2, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 18 | 110 | 230 |
| WSH | 110 | 25 | 07 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:16WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:43WSHTom WilsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 6:25OTTMike HoffmanPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Condon · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 19:48WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Jakub Vrana · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 3:14OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Fredrik Claesson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:57OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:11OTTMax McCormick: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:04WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 4:22WSHMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P2 4:51WSHBrooks Orpik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:57WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:08WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:20OTTZack Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 8:47WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 11:03WSHBrooks Orpik: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Stone – Pageau6:58
xG 0.66–0.12 (84%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Duchene – Dzingel2:01
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Smith – Dzingel9:21
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pyatt – O'Brien – McCormick6:27
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Claesson13:40
xG 0.81–0.22 (79%)attempts 21–8goals 1–1
- Ceci – Harpur7:22
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Claesson – Harpur3:36
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:45
xG 1.32–0.05 (96%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson6:28
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky7:25
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson11:16
xG 0.41–0.92 (31%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov14:13
xG 1.15–0.66 (64%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Orpik – Jerabek11:50
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny11:50
xG 0.27–0.80 (25%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).