Wed, Feb 28, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 112 | 013 | 232 |
| COL | 011 | 418 | 15 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:19CGYMikael BacklundSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:41CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 8:24COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:32COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 12:41COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 18:42COLMatt NietoAssists: Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 19:43COLDuncan SiemensENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–5
Penalties (19)
- P1 1:42CGYSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:09COLBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:09CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:20COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:09CGYTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:09COLDuncan Siemens: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:09CGYTanner Glass: Charging2 min
- P1 18:41CGYMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:42CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:34CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Bench2 min
- P2 11:45COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 12:01CGYDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min
- P3 0:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 4:40COLDuncan Siemens: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:49COLColin Wilson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:05COLBlake Comeau: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:05CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:05CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Embellishment2 min
- P3 17:03COLPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:28
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Stajan – Glass – Stewart5:37
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Jankowski – Hathaway3:12
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett7:14
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton10:21
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Stone – Kulak8:47
xG 0.04–0.11 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie11:25
xG 0.26–0.54 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:58
xG 0.37–0.10 (78%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost3:34
xG 0.17–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:40
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Bourque – Toninato – Compher4:00
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov6:52
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Barrie – Siemens2:39
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard7:47
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).