Thu, Mar 1, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 313 | 03 | 13 | 525 |
| DAL | 113 | 16 | 214 | 02 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:02TBLBrayden PointAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:05DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:13DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 9:20TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Victor Hedman, Chris Kunitz · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 13:53TBLAlex KillornAssists: Cedric Paquette, Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 16:08TBLSteven StamkosAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 1:50DALBrett RitchieAssists: Jason Dickinson, Remi Elie · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 19:56DALMattias JanmarkAssists: Tyler Seguin, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 4:19TBLCory ConacherGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:07TBLCory Conacher: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:20TBLCedric Paquette: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:00DALStephen Johns: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:02DALDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:40DALJason Spezza: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:07TBLYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Gourde – Point12:06
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Conacher – Erne9:42
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Killorn – Paquette – Cirelli6:59
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Stamkos12:45
xG 0.16–0.32 (33%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman6:24
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr9:01
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin2:31
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Shore – Janmark4:36
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Elie7:40
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin9:29
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Johns15:10
xG 0.38–0.25 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn14:48
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Klingberg – Lindell16:14
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).