Fri, Mar 2, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 1, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 114 | 09 | 132 |
| COL | 211 | 410 | 15 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:08COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 5:54COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 8:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 10:39COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Gabriel Bourque · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–5
- P2 12:40COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–6
- P2 17:07MINMikko KoivuAssists: Zach Parise, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 7:46COLMatt NietoAssists: Blake Comeau, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.18 xG1–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:56MINEric Staal: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:09COLGabriel Bourque: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:20MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:18COLDominic Toninato: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:08MINNino Niederreiter: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 15:53COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Winnik – Coyle8:01
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Eriksson Ek – Kunin2:33
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter4:28
xG 0.05–0.04 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund12:26
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 12–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:11
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 20–9goals 0–2
- Seeler – Dumba12:51
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Suter – Dumba3:25
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:14
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 4–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto8:41
xG 0.20–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost3:18
xG 0.04–0.02 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bourque – Toninato – Compher4:47
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Girard14:21
xG 0.85–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 4–0
- Barrie – Zadorov17:28
xG 0.53–0.63 (46%)attempts 18–20goals 1–0
- Siemens – Lindholm11:16
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).