Sat, Mar 3, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 07 | 19 | 03 | 227 |
| PIT | 019 | 119 | 19 | 13 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11NYIBrandon DavidsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 18:04PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P3 4:59NYIAnders LeeAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 11:29PITDerick BrassardAssists: Phil Kessel, Dominik Simon · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 3:48PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:05NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:30PITDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P2 17:38NYICal Clutterbuck: Boarding2 min · PPG
- OT 1:15PITConor Sheary: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:46
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz8:17
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Barzal – Beauvillier12:21
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Wagner11:21
xG 0.05–0.37 (12%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Pulock16:51
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:12
xG 0.53–0.72 (43%)attempts 12–26goals 1–0
- Davidson – Pelech16:34
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Kessel – Simon8:39
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel14:53
xG 0.44–0.10 (81%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Sheary6:06
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hagelin – Rust14:06
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Ruhwedel13:15
xG 0.94–0.28 (77%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin20:09
xG 0.58–0.36 (62%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Maatta2:34
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).