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Ice Lab

Sat, Mar 3, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

New York Islanders 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.

PIT winsNYI wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:43Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Gibson
  3. P1 0:48Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Gibson
  4. P1 1:11Goal by Davidson (Bailey, Lee)+15 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Hornqvist, Dumoulin, Guentzel · NYI Bailey, Tavares, Lee, Davidson, Pelech

  5. P1 2:05Nelson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Sheahan, Kuhnhackl, Maatta, Ruhwedel, Sheary · NYI Boychuk, Ladd, Leddy, Nelson, Fritz

  6. P1 2:12Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson5v4
  7. P1 2:17Shot by Crosby, saved by Gibson5v4
  8. P1 2:39Shot by Hornqvist, saved by Gibson5v4
  9. P1 2:54Shot by Hornqvist, saved by Gibson5v4
  10. P1 4:04Shot by Sheary, saved by Gibson5v4
  11. P1 4:06Shot by Brassard, saved by Gibson
  12. P1 4:25Shot by Kuhnhackl, saved by Gibson
  13. P1 4:37Shot by Kuhnhackl, saved by Gibson
  14. P1 4:53Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Gibson
  15. P1 6:09Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Jarry
  16. P1 6:39Shot by Hagelin, saved by Gibson
  17. P1 7:03Shot by Kessel, saved by Gibson
  18. P1 8:08Shot by Kuhnhackl, saved by Gibson
  19. P1 9:38Shot by Boychuk, saved by Jarry
  20. P1 10:01Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Gibson
  21. P1 10:38Shot by Eberle, saved by Jarry
  22. P1 11:14Shot by Hickey, saved by Jarry
  23. P1 11:18Shot by Hickey, saved by Jarry
  24. P1 12:52Shot by Crosby, saved by Gibson
  25. P1 13:30Brassard: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Letang, Brassard, Kessel, Dumoulin, Simon · NYI Ladd, Nelson, Davidson, Pelech, Fritz

  26. P1 15:06Shot by Eberle, saved by Jarry4v5
  27. P1 15:55Shot by Rust, saved by Gibson
  28. P1 16:00Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  29. P1 15:56Shot by Rust, saved by Gibson
  30. P1 19:45Shot by Davidson, saved by Jarry
  31. P1 0:00Period end
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 0:41Shot by Hagelin, saved by Gibson
  34. P2 0:52Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  35. P2 1:10Shot by Crosby, saved by Gibson
  36. P2 1:56Shot by Simon, saved by Gibson
  37. P2 2:46Shot by Kuhnhackl, saved by Gibson
  38. P2 2:57Shot by Simon, saved by Gibson
  39. P2 3:08Shot by Ladd, saved by Jarry
  40. P2 3:19Shot by Hickey, saved by Jarry
  41. P2 3:29Shot by Pulock, saved by Jarry
  42. P2 4:05Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Gibson
  43. P2 4:50Shot by Guentzel, saved by Gibson
  44. P2 5:34Shot by Sheary, saved by Gibson
  45. P2 6:31Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  46. P2 7:54Shot by Crosby, saved by Gibson
  47. P2 10:19Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  48. P2 10:23Shot by Ruhwedel, saved by Gibson
  49. P2 10:38Shot by Barzal, saved by Jarry
  50. P2 13:46Shot by Brassard, saved by Gibson
  51. P2 14:39Shot by Maatta, saved by Gibson
  52. P2 15:05Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Jarry
  53. P2 16:09Shot by Sheary, saved by Gibson
  54. P2 16:30Shot by Lee, saved by Jarry
  55. P2 17:17Shot by Wagner, saved by Jarry
  56. P2 17:38Clutterbuck: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Hagelin, Rust, Maatta, Ruhwedel · NYI Clutterbuck, Hickey, Cizikas, Wagner, Pulock

  57. P2 17:49Shot by Crosby, saved by Gibson5v4
  58. P2 18:04Goal by Hornqvist (Kessel, Malkin)5v4+24 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Hornqvist, Kessel · NYI Hickey, Nelson, Davidson, Beauvillier

  59. P2 19:21Shot by Hornqvist, saved by Gibson
  60. P2 0:00Period end
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 2:23Shot by Kessel, saved by Gibson
  63. P3 2:25Shot by Schultz, saved by Gibson
  64. P3 2:49Shot by Schultz, saved by Gibson
  65. P3 4:38Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson
  66. P3 4:59Goal by Lee (Tavares)+31 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Hagelin, Schultz, Rust, Oleksiak · NYI Boychuk, Bailey, Tavares, Leddy, Lee

  67. P3 5:12Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Gibson
  68. P3 6:01Shot by Brassard, saved by Gibson
  69. P3 6:11Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Jarry
  70. P3 6:49Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Jarry
  71. P3 10:01Shot by Beauvillier, saved by Jarry
  72. P3 11:29Goal by Brassard (Kessel, Simon)+36 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Brassard, Kessel, Maatta, Ruhwedel, Simon · NYI Bailey, Cizikas, Nelson, Davidson, Pelech

  73. P3 12:19Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Gibson
  74. P3 14:10Shot by Fritz, saved by Jarry
  75. P3 14:39Shot by Boychuk, saved by Jarry
  76. P3 16:25Shot by Cizikas, saved by Jarry
  77. P3 16:30Shot by Leddy, saved by Jarry
  78. P3 17:19Shot by Letang, saved by Gibson
  79. P3 19:57Shot by Boychuk, saved by Jarry
  80. P3 0:00Period end
  81. OT 0:00Period start
  82. OT 0:41Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry3v3
  83. OT 0:52Shot by Malkin, saved by Gibson3v3
  84. OT 1:15Sheary: Too many men on the ice (2 min)3v3

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Kessel, Schultz · NYI Bailey, Leddy, Barzal

  85. OT 1:33Shot by Leddy, saved by Jarry3v4
  86. OT 2:34Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry3v4
  87. OT 3:26Shot by Crosby, saved by Gibson4v4
  88. OT 3:48Goal by Crosby (Schultz, Letang)4v4+43 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Letang, Schultz · NYI Eberle, Pelech, Pulock, Beauvillier

  89. OT 3:48Period end4v4
  90. OT 3:48Final4v4