Sun, Mar 4, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 17 | 114 | 12 | 431 |
| COL | 111 | 07 | 27 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09NSHAustin WatsonAssists: Colton Sissons, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:57COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Carl Soderberg, Anton Lindholm · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:08NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 4:38COLMatt NietoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 14:22COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:54NSHRyan EllisAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:07NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Ryan Ellis, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:49COLNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:51NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:12NSHRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:37COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:27NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:40COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:40NSHViktor Arvidsson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 19:37COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:43NSHAustin Watson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok8:26
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Watson – Salomaki – Sissons5:59
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Hartman – Fiala8:23
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:13
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:07
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban14:23
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm16:14
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:04
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:24
xG 0.17–0.16 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Yakupov – Kerfoot – Jost4:11
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost3:17
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov15:28
xG 0.69–0.27 (72%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Barrie – Lindholm2:57
xG 0.08–0.11 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Girard10:49
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).