Mon, Mar 5, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 113 | 012 | 210 | 00 | 335 |
| EDM | 317 | 05 | 013 | 11 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29ARIJason DemersAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 8:01EDMJujhar KhairaSHAssists: Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 13:21EDMMilan LucicAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Matt Benning · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 17:04EDMJesse PuljujarviPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 11:31ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 15:21ARINiklas HjalmarssonUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:50EDMOscar KlefbomGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:35EDMAnton Slepyshev: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:39ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:11ARINick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:11EDMDrake Caggiula: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:11ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:11EDMDrake Caggiula: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:11ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:59EDMRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:40ARIJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:30EDMMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Cousins – Martinook10:06
xG 1.46–0.10 (94%)attempts 20–7goals 1–1
- Panik – Hamilton – Archibald5:51
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Panik – Domi – Dvorak2:41
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Domi – Dvorak – Fischer9:35
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Connauton11:08
xG 1.17–0.29 (80%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson14:01
xG 0.94–0.52 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Schenn – Connauton3:19
xG 0.29–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Draisaitl – McDavid12:10
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
- Cammalleri – Nugent-Hopkins – Aberg10:04
xG 0.47–0.41 (54%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Pakarinen – Khaira – Caggiula7:30
xG 0.07–0.10 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Slepyshev – Puljujarvi8:02
xG 0.03–1.05 (3%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Nurse – Bear2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning9:37
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse15:38
xG 0.41–1.16 (26%)attempts 11–25goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).