Tue, Mar 6, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 0, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 07 | 010 | 026 |
| NSH | 09 | 014 | 211 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:33NSHRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Austin Watson, Colton Sissons · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 19:46NSHNick BoninoENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:40NSHMike Fisher: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:50DALMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09NSHAustin Watson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:44DALTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:51NSHScott Hartnell: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:57DALGreg Pateryn: Holding2 min
- P2 10:52NSHRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:00DALJulius Honka: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:33DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:33NSHNick Bonino: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:00DALDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Shore – Janmark2:06
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Roussel – Pitlick2:05
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin3:56
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Shore – Janmark4:03
xG 0.08–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Honka7:01
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Methot – Klingberg11:24
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn13:30
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:42
xG 0.30–0.11 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Fiala6:16
xG 0.18–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Sissons – Hartman5:52
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Bonino – Jarnkrok4:18
xG 0.01–0.11 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm14:26
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Irwin8:10
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Emelin – Subban13:16
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).