Wed, Mar 7, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Calgary Flames 5, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 217 | 314 | 010 | 541 |
| BUF | 06 | 011 | 19 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35CGYSam BennettAssists: Mark Jankowski, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:35CGYMark JankowskiGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 5:00CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Micheal Ferland, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 6:01CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.06 xG4–0
- P2 18:39CGYDougie HamiltonPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 19:42BUFCasey NelsonAssists: Jason Pominville, Scott Wilson · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:21CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:38CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:20CGYCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20CGYCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:20BUFNick Baptiste: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:50BUFRobin Lehner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:04BUFJacob Josefson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:54
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Bennett7:31
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk11:41
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Stajan – Brouwer – Lazar8:28
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Brodie17:28
xG 0.94–0.20 (83%)attempts 24–13goals 2–0
- Giordano – Hamilton15:17
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Stone – Kulak16:08
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart13:08
xG 0.18–0.24 (42%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Griffith – Baptiste5:41
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson10:49
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Okposo – Josefson – Nolan9:23
xG 0.10–0.54 (16%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Nelson7:26
xG 0.23–0.11 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Guhle7:38
xG 0.04–0.40 (9%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Antipin17:59
xG 0.20–0.56 (27%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).