Thu, Mar 8, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 115 | 18 | 18 | 03 | 2 | 434 |
| OTT | 012 | 313 | 013 | 02 | 1 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:26BUFMarco ScandellaUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:36OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:26OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mike Hoffman, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 14:23BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 17:30OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Magnus Paajarvi, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 0:27BUFScott WilsonAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Matt Duchene scored
- 2. BUF Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 4. BUF Sam Reinhart scored
- 5. OTT Mike Hoffman stopped
- 6. BUF Jacob Josefson scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:51BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 7:41BUFJustin Falk: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:36OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:15OTTRyan Dzingel: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:43BUFBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:49BUFJohan Larsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:44OTTMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – O'Reilly – Reinhart9:25
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart2:59
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Nolan – O'Regan – Baptiste2:05
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Girgensons – O'Regan – Baptiste4:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Nelson10:47
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Scandella – Ristolainen16:46
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Falk – Guhle8:21
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Duchene – Dzingel11:54
xG 0.84–0.37 (70%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0
- Ryan – Stone – Pageau7:23
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Paajarvi – Stone – Pageau3:45
xG 0.10–0.04 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Burrows – O'Brien3:56
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci5:33
xG 0.44–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Chabot5:39
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Harpur2:40
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).