Sat, Mar 10, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 112 | 010 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
| TBL | 111 | 010 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10MTLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Charles Hudon, Mike Reilly · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:43TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Yanni Gourde · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 3:00MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Charles Hudon · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 13:43TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Mikhail Sergachev stopped
- 2. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 6. MTL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 7. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 8. MTL Artturi Lehkonen stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:45TBLAdam Erne: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:32MTLJacob de la Rose: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:36MTLJacob de la Rose: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:39MTLNoah Juulsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 11:09MTLCharles Hudon: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:09TBLAdam Erne: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:51TBLCedric Paquette: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:51MTLJordie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:17TBLJ.T. Miller: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:58TBLChris Kunitz: High sticking2 min
- OT 2:08MTLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Drouin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Drouin11:59
xG 0.60–0.26 (69%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Shaw – Danault – Lehkonen7:10
xG 0.15–0.11 (56%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – Hudon – de la Rose8:32
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Froese – Carr7:33
xG 0.05–0.35 (11%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Lernout2:33
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Benn – Lernout10:10
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Alzner2:36
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Gourde – Point7:38
xG 0.30–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette7:05
xG 0.27–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller6:31
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Killorn – Erne – Cirelli8:06
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman6:42
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev8:03
xG 0.11–0.11 (50%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:04
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).