Sat, Mar 10, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 110 | 110 | 08 | 228 |
| COL | 39 | 08 | 214 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45COLBlake ComeauAssists: Carl Soderberg · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 2:14ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Richard Panik, Josh Archibald · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 2:41COLTyson BarrieAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 4:22COLCarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Blake Comeau · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 15:09ARIRichard PanikAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:45COLTyson JostPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–4
- P3 12:40COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, David Warsofsky · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:51ARILaurent Dauphin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:23COLNathan MacKinnon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:18COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:18ARIJordan Martinook: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:18COLNathan MacKinnon: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:28ARIBrendan Perlini: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:10ARIChristian Fischer: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:54ARIBrendan Perlini: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:54ARIBrendan Perlini: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:54ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:54ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:54ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:54COLNikita Zadorov: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:54COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:54COLSven Andrighetto: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:07COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestPanik – Archibald – Dvorak4:49
xG 0.46–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook10:45
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Stepan – Perlini – Keller4:12
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Stepan – Panik – Keller7:29
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Chychrun11:35
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson15:58
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto9:21
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Bourque – Yakupov – Kerfoot3:30
xG 0.02–0.13 (10%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost8:59
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:45
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov10:27
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Barrie – Girard2:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Warsofsky – Nemeth2:25
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).