Mon, Mar 12, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Rangers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 118 | 116 | 344 |
| NYR | 19 | 26 | 38 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Neal Pionk, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 14:32CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 1:52NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 7:48CARLee StempniakAssists: Jeff Skinner, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 11:51NYRVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 8:23CARVictor RaskPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 12:15NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 17:23NYRMats ZuccarelloENAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–5
- P3 19:36NYRJimmy VeseyENAssists: Jesper Fast, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.49 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:14CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08CARVictor Rask: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:35NYRDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P2 11:45CARNoah Hanifin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:29NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P3 6:55NYRMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Skinner – Ryan6:16
xG 0.58–0.13 (82%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Ryan3:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho12:35
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Williams – McGinn – Lindholm10:41
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Pesce2:27
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Faulk – Dahlbeck13:05
xG 0.59–0.15 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Slavin – Pesce14:13
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Vesey – Buchnevich10:57
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad12:20
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- McLeod – Desharnais – Carey5:10
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Spooner – Hayes11:20
xG 0.15–0.67 (18%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Gilmour2:10
xG 0.21–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- O'Gara – Gilmour7:08
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Pionk14:11
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 4–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).