Mon, Mar 12, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Detroit Red Wings 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 111 | 16 | 326 |
| SJS | 212 | 19 | 213 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01DETTrevor DaleyAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:55SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Evander Kane, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 12:39SJSEric FehrAssists: Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 1:39SJSKevin LabancAssists: Chris Tierney, Timo Meier · Slap, 0.43 xG1–3
- P2 5:05DETGustav NyquistAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Trevor Daley · Slap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 5:12SJSTimo MeierPPGWGAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Dylan DeMelo · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 5:53DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 18:26SJSChris TierneyENAssists: Joe Pavelski, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:31SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:20SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:02DETMike Green: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:55DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:02DETTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi11:50
xG 0.78–0.40 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 3–1
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Athanasiou2:51
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:23
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Svechnikov5:14
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson13:30
xG 0.82–0.67 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Kronwall – Jensen3:46
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green8:03
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Labanc – Meier8:47
xG 0.67–0.35 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Couture – Boedker – Hertl11:29
xG 0.59–0.34 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Fehr – Sorensen – Goodrow8:16
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Kane – Donskoi11:16
xG 0.64–0.83 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan15:34
xG 1.10–0.43 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Braun17:22
xG 0.81–0.55 (60%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Dillon – DeMelo11:13
xG 0.30–0.74 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).