Thu, Mar 15, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Nashville Predators 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 110 | 211 | 329 |
| ARI | 09 | 211 | 014 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:09ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–1
- P2 5:49NSHRyan EllisAssists: Craig Smith, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 16:28ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 0:22NSHKyle TurrisAssists: Kevin Fiala, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 4:31NSHKevin FialaGWGAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 12:05NSHAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P1 17:59ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:59NSHCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:38ARINick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25NSHColton Sissons: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 2:06NSHScott Hartnell: Holding2 min
- P3 5:29NSHMiikka Salomaki: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:47ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:27ARIBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:39NSHKyle Turris: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala9:03
xG 1.12–0.09 (93%)attempts 19–3goals 3–0
- Hartnell – Johansen – Arvidsson6:45
xG 0.28–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson2:17
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bonino – Forsberg – Hartman5:00
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm11:40
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban14:22
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Josi – Bitetto11:16
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Perlini – Dvorak8:44
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Archibald – Fischer5:06
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller10:47
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook11:01
xG 0.16–0.75 (17%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Hjalmarsson – Connauton10:44
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun11:23
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson11:39
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).