Fri, Mar 16, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 19 | 07 | 17 | 02 | 225 |
| OTT | 06 | 06 | 211 | 12 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:36DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 2:20OTTMarian GaborikPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 16:50OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 18:12DALTyler PitlickAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 3:26OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:25OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:13OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:13DALGreg Pateryn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:05DALMattias Janmark: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:48DALDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:04DALTyler Pitlick: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin13:03
xG 0.58–0.47 (55%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Shore – Dickinson – Elie6:03
xG 0.15–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Smith – Janmark7:25
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa10:12
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn16:26
xG 0.93–0.47 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell18:22
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Johns – Honka9:12
xG 0.13–0.07 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Ryan – Pageau5:14
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – Dzingel14:54
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Gaborik – O'Brien – McCormick2:40
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Burrows – O'Brien – McCormick2:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot12:09
xG 0.64–0.32 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci7:24
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Claesson4:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).