Fri, Mar 16, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 110 | 212 | 16 | 428 |
| COL | 112 | 115 | 08 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:26NSHColton SissonsAssists: P.K. Subban, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:01COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:28COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Gabriel Bourque, David Warsofsky · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 6:28NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Craig Smith, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- P2 13:39NSHColton SissonsGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Nick Bonino · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:51NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:58NSHColton Sissons: Holding2 min
- P1 7:44COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:06COLTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:54NSHYannick Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 17:49COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P3 10:07NSHP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:42NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:17COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Sissons – Hartman8:29
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala8:14
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:55
xG 0.43–0.86 (33%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Fisher – Watson – Salomaki8:21
xG 0.06–0.57 (10%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis11:58
xG 1.50–0.32 (82%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Weber – Irwin10:53
xG 0.11–0.79 (12%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm15:28
xG 0.06–1.14 (5%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Soderberg – Nieto7:58
xG 0.36–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:27
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost3:12
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Bourque – Toninato – Compher2:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWarsofsky – Zadorov2:15
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Girard9:50
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Barrie – Nemeth2:50
xG 0.08–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).