Sat, Mar 17, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 18 | 07 | 327 |
| TBL | 05 | 09 | 09 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Torey Krug, Adam McQuaid · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:54BOSDavid BackesPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 12:33BOSRiley NashPPAssists: Rick Nash, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:41TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:41BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:23TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23BOSNoel Acciari: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:23BOSTim Schaller: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:23TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:50BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:16TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNash – Krejci – Heinen10:33
xG 0.73–0.09 (89%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak2:00
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari9:48
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Nash – Wingels9:24
xG 0.11–0.10 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk12:53
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Holden9:47
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo11:49
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Erne – Cirelli7:58
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gourde – Point8:23
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Miller – Gourde2:42
xG 0.07–0.02 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Point3:24
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh9:57
xG 0.39–0.15 (72%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Sergachev6:00
xG 0.19–0.11 (64%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Stralman – Hedman2:01
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).