Sat, Mar 17, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 010 | 212 | 333 |
| ARI | 09 | 111 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35MINNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–0
- P2 4:03ARIClayton KellerAssists: Richard Panik · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 10:51MINMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Daniel Winnik, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:42MINEric StaalENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:21ARIJosh Archibald: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:45ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:09MINMikael Granlund: Interference2 min
- P1 17:00ARIJordan Martinook: Interference2 min
- P2 15:22MINRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:59ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28ARIJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek8:27
xG 0.47–0.10 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Granlund10:30
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Cullen – Ennis – Coyle10:48
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Niederreiter10:46
xG 0.65–1.23 (35%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba18:47
xG 0.55–0.44 (55%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Prosser – Olofsson9:21
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Brodin – Murphy15:19
xG 0.79–1.67 (32%)attempts 13–32goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Cousins – Martinook10:42
xG 0.91–0.62 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller8:24
xG 0.40–0.29 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Domi – Perlini – Dvorak7:55
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Archibald – Fischer6:08
xG 0.04–0.14 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Connauton12:06
xG 0.84–0.54 (61%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson16:24
xG 0.89–0.64 (58%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun9:24
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).