Sun, Mar 18, 2018·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 214 | 215 | 14 | 541 |
| CHI | 213 | 110 | 17 | 00 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 19:08CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Tomas Jurco, Jordan Oesterle · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 2:02STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 5:14STLVince DunnPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 19:58CHIDavid KampfAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 15:24STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–3
- P3 16:47CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Artem Anisimov, Tomas Jurco · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:38STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Vince Dunn · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 3:31STLPatrik BerglundGWGAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.07 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:35CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:33STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:56CHIJordan Oesterle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:42CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Sobotka – Berglund10:34
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Steen – Brodziak – Berglund2:51
xG 0.10–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jaskin – Barbashev – Soshnikov3:15
xG 0.02–0.05 (35%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Thompson2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson5:15
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo14:51
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Edmundson10:00
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Jurco – DeBrincat10:54
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad13:18
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – Kampf2:15
xG 0.23–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Schmaltz – Highmore4:29
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Rutta15:30
xG 0.72–0.26 (73%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Murphy – Oesterle10:50
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson4:31
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).