Mon, Mar 19, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 2, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 016 | 216 | 012 | 244 |
| ARI | 09 | 214 | 37 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:15ARIRichard PanikAssists: Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 9:05CGYDougie HamiltonAssists: Mark Giordano, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 15:28CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 17:31ARIMax DomiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 16:19ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Max Domi, Brendan Perlini · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:23ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–4
- P3 19:39ARIMax DomiENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:38ARIRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:38CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:05ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Charging2 min
- P1 15:31ARIMax Domi: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:18CGYTravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P3 3:41ARIJosh Archibald: Charging2 min
- P3 5:32ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:32CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Lazar – Hathaway8:52
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett10:58
xG 1.17–0.73 (62%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
- Stewart – Ferland – Jankowski8:42
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Frolik – Backlund11:38
xG 0.35–0.47 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:56
xG 1.66–0.86 (66%)attempts 37–14goals 2–1
- Hamonic – Kulak2:28
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Stone16:25
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Perlini – Dvorak10:54
xG 0.89–0.21 (81%)attempts 20–9goals 2–0
- Rinaldo – Archibald – Fischer5:47
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Panik – Keller11:59
xG 0.22–0.40 (35%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook9:50
xG 0.64–1.00 (39%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Chychrun5:27
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson15:49
xG 0.84–0.82 (50%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun10:17
xG 0.44–0.57 (43%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).