Wed, Mar 21, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 26 | 15 | 416 |
| CGY | 011 | 012 | 06 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:51ANAAndrew CoglianoSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 8:58ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Francois Beauchemin, Adam Henrique · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 18:55ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 17:31ANAFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.06 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:02CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:02ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:37ANABrandon Montour: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:45CGYMark Giordano: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:39CGYMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:08ANAJakob Silfverberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:02
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase10:50
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Chimera – Kelly – Grant5:06
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell13:05
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm2:15
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pettersson12:47
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Fowler3:48
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Frolik – Backlund11:23
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 20–4goals 0–0
- Stajan – Glass – Lazar8:57
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett13:01
xG 0.40–0.23 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Jankowski – Hathaway8:19
xG 0.10–0.42 (20%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton18:17
xG 1.19–0.38 (76%)attempts 32–10goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Stone18:28
xG 0.51–0.44 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Kulak – Andersson9:53
xG 0.12–0.31 (27%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).