Thu, Mar 22, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 316 | 410 | 010 | 736 |
| NYI | 111 | 216 | 314 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:09TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Braydon Coburn, Yanni Gourde · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 2:35TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Chris Kunitz, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 10:24NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, John Tavares · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 14:17TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 2:43TBLBrayden PointSHAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 3:20NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P2 5:15NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 8:27TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Steven Stamkos, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–3
- P2 11:22TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.05 xG6–3
- P2 18:20TBLJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.22 xG7–3
- P3 1:35NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.13 xG7–4
- P3 3:21NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Jordan Eberle · Backhand, 0.09 xG7–5
- P3 4:36NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.01 xG7–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:54NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:03TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:58TBLNikita Kucherov: Elbowing2 min
- P1 12:08TBLNikita Kucherov: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:49NYIAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
- P2 1:56TBLMikhail Sergachev: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 10:00NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:34NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gourde – Cirelli10:19
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Miller11:59
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–2
- Kunitz – Johnson – Erne2:26
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Erne – Point3:11
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman11:40
xG 0.72–0.21 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Coburn – Sergachev2:49
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 3–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:48
xG 0.15–0.04 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Barzal – Beauvillier11:10
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Cizikas – Nelson – Fritz4:09
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Clutterbuck – Wagner3:11
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Nelson – Fritz5:20
xG 0.04–0.10 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hickey – Pulock17:02
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Pelech11:30
xG 0.63–0.67 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Boychuk – Hickey2:19
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).