Thu, Mar 22, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Nashville Predators 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 113 | 210 | 25 | 528 |
| NSH | 04 | 19 | 112 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:42NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 15:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 16:44TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 0:09TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 3:39TORJake GardinerAssists: Connor Brown, Tyler Bozak · Slap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 15:37NSHScott HartnellAssists: Mike Fisher, Austin Watson · Snap, 0.09 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:05NSHMike Fisher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 6:23TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min
- P1 15:35TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43TORAuston Matthews: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:39TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:00TORTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03NSHKevin Fiala: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:55TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P3 5:52NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown9:55
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:20
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Plekanec – Johnsson – Kapanen7:20
xG 0.06–0.45 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner11:02
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Dermott2:20
xG 0.22–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Polak – Dermott11:26
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly9:52
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala8:26
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Sissons – Hartman9:49
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:36
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Fisher – Hartnell – Watson7:20
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Irwin7:04
xG 0.51–0.08 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm8:50
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis7:38
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).