Fri, Mar 23, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Boston Bruins 3, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 010 | 016 | 310 | 336 |
| DAL | 117 | 113 | 012 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:26DALEsa LindellAssists: Curtis McKenzie, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 19:22DALJamie BennSHAssists: Tyler Seguin, Stephen Johns · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 1:17BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Riley Nash · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 9:47BOSTim SchallerSHAssists: Brad Marchand, Kevan Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 19:48BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:14BOSRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:03BOSRiley Nash: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:26DALBrett Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:38BOSAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 14:59DALTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P2 18:10DALJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:10BOSBrandon Carlo: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Donato – Heinen11:54
xG 0.80–0.43 (65%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Gionta – Wingels – Szwarz2:21
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Schaller – Acciari5:35
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Schaller – Acciari4:21
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk15:00
xG 1.01–0.31 (76%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Holden – Miller2:12
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Grzelcyk2:57
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Ritchie9:16
xG 0.67–0.31 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Shore7:46
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McKenzie – Dickinson – Elie4:17
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Radulov – Faksa – Janmark12:35
xG 0.51–0.81 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamhuis – Pateryn13:28
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Methot – Johns11:07
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell15:39
xG 0.91–1.24 (42%)attempts 16–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).