Sat, Mar 24, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 1, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 021 | 09 | 114 | 144 |
| NYR | 210 | 37 | 06 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:29NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 18:02NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:59NYRNeal PionkAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Kevin Hayes · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 8:45NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 14:47NYRJimmy VeseyPPAssists: Ryan Spooner, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–5
- P3 15:26BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 8:23BUFJordan Nolan: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:17BUFMarco Scandella: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:17NYRPeter Holland: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:25NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P2 13:28BUFJack Eichel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:50NYRRyan Sproul: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:13NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:33BUFJordan Nolan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Baptiste – Rodrigues9:29
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Eichel3:13
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Nolan – Larsson7:32
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Reinhart3:38
xG 0.24–0.04 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Antipin14:54
xG 1.35–0.31 (81%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen11:19
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Guhle5:26
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad9:57
xG 1.32–0.53 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Vesey11:57
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Spooner – Namestnikov – Buchnevich13:42
xG 0.32–0.83 (28%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- McLeod – Carey – Holland8:43
xG 0.07–0.80 (8%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Gara – Skjei11:26
xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sproul – Skjei6:13
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- O'Gara – Gilmour5:46
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).