Sun, Mar 25, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 214 | 118 | 113 | 00 | 445 |
| PIT | 16 | 214 | 18 | 14 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03PHITravis SanheimAssists: Jordan Weal, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:38PITDerick BrassardAssists: Conor Sheary, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 11:07PHIBrandon ManningAssists: Jordan Weal, Valtteri Filppula · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 0:37PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 2:37PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Justin Schultz, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:10PHIJordan WealPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Oskar Lindblom · Snap, 0.35 xG3–3
- P3 0:17PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Justin Schultz, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:17PHISean CouturierAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–4
- OT 2:25PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.38 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:09PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:25PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:48PHIJakub Voracek: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40PITDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:28PITBrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Lindblom – Patrick12:09
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:12
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Lehtera – Read – Laughton4:56
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal10:54
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas14:28
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov14:20
xG 0.53–0.61 (47%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Sanheim13:57
xG 0.19–0.65 (23%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel8:43
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheary9:45
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin8:09
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Kuhnhackl – Simon5:55
xG 0.02–0.08 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Oleksiak14:44
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin16:04
xG 0.85–0.59 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 2–1
- Maatta – Ruhwedel13:16
xG 0.32–0.54 (37%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).