Mon, Mar 26, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 19 | 010 | 228 |
| MTL | 115 | 27 | 19 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 18:11MTLPaul ByronPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:27MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Karl Alzner, Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:32MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Mike Reilly, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 13:41DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Ericsson · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 15:34MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:41MTLBrett Lernout: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:54DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52DETTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:59MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:59DETEvgeny Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:57DETGustav Nyquist: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:04DETTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04DETTyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:04MTLCharles Hudon: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:04MTLCharles Hudon: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Bertuzzi9:50
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Athanasiou9:10
xG 0.37–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Frk – Svechnikov5:17
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin8:41
xG 0.12–0.50 (19%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ouellet13:26
xG 0.36–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Daley – Ericsson12:44
xG 0.73–0.56 (56%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser18:59
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 20–21goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Drouin12:58
xG 0.65–0.44 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Froese – McCarron4:29
xG 0.13–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Galchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen11:30
xG 0.31–0.19 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Shaw – Hudon – Scherbak10:19
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Juulsen16:55
xG 0.68–0.26 (73%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Petry – Benn14:11
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Reilly – Lernout13:34
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).