Mon, Mar 26, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Arizona Coyotes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 212 | 211 | 435 |
| TBL | 07 | 06 | 17 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:45ARITrevor MurphyAssists: Jordan Martinook, Nick Cousins · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 17:22ARIJakob ChychrunPPGWGAssists: Richard Panik, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 10:28ARIBrendan PerliniAssists: Dylan Strome, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 14:37TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 19:52ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.69 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:07TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:44TBLCedric Paquette: Interference2 min
- P2 14:28ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:12TBLChris Kunitz: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 2:17TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:53ARIJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Richardson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Panik – Keller11:42
xG 0.98–0.12 (89%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Archibald – Domi – Dvorak9:48
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Perlini – Fischer – Strome9:52
xG 0.22–0.48 (32%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook11:56
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson15:32
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Connauton – Murphy9:24
xG 0.25–0.27 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun16:32
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Miller – Point4:59
xG 0.22–0.02 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Gourde4:00
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Miller8:10
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Paquette – Cirelli2:50
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sergachev6:35
xG 0.45–0.06 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman2:05
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Koekkoek2:31
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).