Tue, Mar 27, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 217 | 010 | 17 | 334 |
| NJD | 113 | 117 | 215 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:47NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 11:41CARPhillip Di GiuseppeAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:53CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Lee Stempniak, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 14:07NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:39CARNoah HanifinAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 11:05NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:27NJDStefan NoesenGWGAssists: Andy Greene, Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.37 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:54CARJustin Williams: Holding2 min
- P1 7:00NJDSami Vatanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:52NJDTaylor Hall: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:22CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27NJDJohn Moore: Holding2 min
- P3 9:06CARValentin Zykov: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:31CARKlas Dahlbeck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Zykov – Aho11:58
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Foegele – Ryan9:15
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Williams – Staal – McGinn9:14
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Di Giuseppe – Lindholm11:13
xG 0.60–1.15 (34%)attempts 13–16goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Hanifin13:53
xG 0.79–0.64 (56%)attempts 19–11goals 2–1
- Fleury – McKeown11:06
xG 0.35–0.37 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Dahlbeck – Slavin16:18
xG 0.55–1.22 (31%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHall – Bratt – Hischier8:12
xG 1.02–0.28 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Noesen – Zacha3:33
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier4:20
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Zajac – Coleman – Noesen7:18
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson14:18
xG 1.04–0.93 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Greene – Vatanen15:40
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Butcher – Mueller9:50
xG 0.18–0.13 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).